24 Working Theorys for 2024
Twenty-four ideas across four major themes: startups & investing, social products, media & creators, and lifestyle
Happy New Year! I hope you had a great holiday week with good food and company. What better way to start the new year than with, yes, a predictions post! I’d love to hear your comments on these ideas and what will be top of mind for you this year :)
It’s the beginning of a new year, which means everyone’s reflecting on what’s been and what’s to come — including me.
This year I’ve decided to share not just one or two but twenty-four ideas. I’ve bucketed them into four themes that I spend a lot of time thinking about and/or build and invest in (there are certainly other important categories that are less my focus). And quick preface: although AI will influence all of these categories, none of my predictions are directly about AI because it’s a tool and not the end product.
Some of these ideas relate to deep dives I’ve written about recently or will likely write about in the coming months, so consider these just the headlines. So here goes — enjoy my shareable bingo card of predictions, and please share your own thoughts and predictions via the comments!
Startups & Investing
#1 The Silicon Valley Small Business goes mainstream
Builders well-versed in the traditional venture-backed startup playbook choose to take an alternate route that prioritizes profitable, lean growth yet still aims for big outcomes — without the forcing function of lots of outside funding.
#2 “One-round wonders” are the new venture dream
If founders do take outside funding at all, they try to minimize the amount — ideally just one round to help kickstart the engine and increase the potential slope of the company. I believe $2M or less is ideal and $5M is a kind of upper bound.
#3 Dividends emerge as the anti-exit exit strategy
With the focus on profitability and uncertain environment for “classic” venture exits —M&A or IPO — more startups will seek to pay out dividends to founders, investors, and employees while staying private. Incorporation and funding playbooks as well as standard terms and tools will begin adapting to this option.
#4 Software investing goes bi-modal
Platform inventions with new tech (e.g. AI, AR/VR) may still raise big, but non-platform inventions with mature tech and competition will raise little, aim for profitability, and ride the wave. Founders and investors should self-declare focus.
#5 Product studios become MVP studios
With all the technology, information, and access tailwinds, it’s easier than ever to build a product. “Product studios” (especially in consumer software) will continue shifting towards “minimum viable product” studios — launching many concepts over a few full-fledged ideas — and many led by just one or two skilled builders.
#6 Venture capitalists play private equity games
With renewed focus on profitability and uncertain late-stage markets, we’ll see consolidation and some venture capital funds will start engaging more like small to mid cap private equity firms. (The hyped “personal holding company” is a self-funded or “solo GP” like proxy.)
Social Products
#7 Social utilities gain momentum over social networks
Many have launched new social networks to compete on status and entertainment value props, but few have focused on utility itself. The next wave of notable new social products will be social utilities — tools that you use with other people for a social purpose but without first needing to create a new or dedicated graph.
#8 IRL social clubs make a bigger comeback
Post-COVID pandemic, there’s been a resurging desire for IRL social interaction. It’s been largely informal, but we’ll see more private social clubs with IRL venues formalize in big cities. Clubs will form not just based on demographics, but also on deep shared interests — hobbies (e.g. pickleball) or work (e.g. entrepreneurs).
#9 Owning community gets even more competitive
Community will remain important for companies and creators to consolidate and engage their bases. Discord, arguably the leading community-first platform, will face more pressure from the likes of Geneva and other niche products. Whatsapp has steadily added community features and will compete as an accessible option.1
#10 Social products diversify beyond mobile apps
The mobile app market is saturated and highly competitive, and while it’s easier than ever to launch apps, it’s increasingly hard to attract and retain users. More social products will lean back into web apps and continue trying to unlock new mechanics and platforms, e.g. crypto and AR/VR (especially Apple’s VisionPro).
#11 Online dating moves away from one-size-fits-all
Dating apps will stay popular for convenience and volume, but more people will seek novel and hybrid experiences — less time on algorithmic apps and more time engaging people and in-person (enabled by AI, sure, but also new formats). Dating app giants will try to facilitate this but niche or new entrants will emerge.
#12 Social software embraces paid business models
The playbook of growing products to millions of users, then adding monetization looks less promising than it once was. The existence of legacy giants, difficulty for new apps to reach and sustain scale, and backlash against privacy risks just makes it harder. We’ll see products go paid and/or premium from the start, flipping the playbook to go for profitability first and then growth.
Media & Creators
#13 Companionship content stays king
Companionship content is long-form content that’s consumed passively, e.g. many podcasts and content on Netflix or YouTube — the most popular (90% adoption) among teens.2 Despite the continuing surge of short-form video, companionship content will remain the most popular and valuable for creators.
#14 Creators rebrand from generalists to specialists
With saturation of “full-stack” creators that arose on horizontal platforms (e.g. TikTok, YouTube, IG), creators will start to specialize more quickly in a creative domain (e.g. film production, fashion) or lucrative skill (e.g. sports). Expect many to shed the title of “creator” in favor of skill-based titles like “producer.”
#15 Casual gaming crosses the creator chasm
We’re technologically and socially ripe for user-generated game content platforms to make an accessibility leap. Gaming "creators” are known largely as performers but we’ll see game builders-as-creators emerge, especially in casual.
#16 Book & magazine publishing goes independent
Short-form and high-frequency formats (e.g. news, blogs) have decentralized a lot in the past 10 years, but book & magazine publishing has kept its legacy industry structure. We’ll start seeing more and more independent authors & publishers.
#17 Budget films take mindshare from blockbusters
Big budget, superhero movies and other blockbuster hits have dominated mainstream film for the past decade, especially with recent focus on reviving theater cinema. But storytelling quality has tanked. We’ll see this revived via lower budget and even indie films that focus on character and conversation.
#18 Applied art enters an accessible era
Technology tailwinds are making it easier for anyone to mix art and utility, which historically required niche technical skills. We’ve seen how fine art can advance (e.g. painting, sculpture), but I expect applied art (e.g. industrial, graphic, fashion, and interior design) to leap forward next and capture greater cultural capital.
Lifestyle
#19 Part-time knowledge work becomes common
While the full-time, 40-hour workweek has been the knowledge worker standard, part-time work will become more accessible, standardized, and less stigmatized (as it has for many non-white collar jobs via the gig economy). There’ll be more unique hybrids of full-time and part-time as well as in-person and remote work.
#20 More CEO-types step away from the day-to-day
We’ve seen high-profile, late-stage startup founder CEOs take the familiar path of resigning and transitioning to a symbolic role as Board Chair. I expect to see this normalize even more and to see it occur at earlier stages too (and to happen increasingly in positions of power across business, politics, and more).
#21 Alternative and skill-based learning models rise
With rising skepticism of the content and cost-efficacy of traditional education, we’ll see new models strengthen — trade-based education (e.g. bootcamps), novel experiential colleges (e.g. Minerva), prestige substitutes for college (e.g. Thiel Fellowship), cohort experiences (e.g. Buildspace), and more continuing education.
#22 Preventive health takes a bigger share of wallet
In particular, preventive health diagnostics (e.g. biomarkers, preventive body scans) and supplements will go more mainstream (on top of the already increased emphasis on niche diet and exercise routines). Realistically it’ll take a few years, but longevity science and its application will take a big step forward.3
#23 Mental health aid aspires to go multi-modal
In addition to continued improvements in access and insurance coverage for talk therapy and pharmacology, we’ll see a push behind new modalities — drug-assisted therapies (e.g. ketamine / psychedelics) and non-pharmacological interventions for diet, exercise, sleep (e.g. novel approach to support groups).
#24 Mature urbanites go suburban or slowmad
Post-COVID, people flocked back to cities for social and professional needs, but this urge has settled out. Mature 20 and 30 somethings will keep seeking out suburbs and tier 2 cities for balanced, affordable lifestyles. Others will embrace a slow-paced traveling lifestyle focused on immersion over quick experiences.
If these ideas resonate with you, consider scrolling up to give this post a like (helps more people on Substack find it), sharing with a friend, leaving a comment … or whatever else you think is kind. 🙏 P.S. If my writing helps you do your job in any way (and/or you could expense it), I kindly ask you to consider becoming a patron.
Whatsapp is already a major community platform internationally, so this prediction is focused more on Western / US user bases. <https://www.wired.com/story/whatsapp-communities-feature/>
“YouTube continues to be top platform among teens, followed by TikTok, Snapchat and Instagram” <https://www.pewresearch.org/internet/2023/12/11/teens-social-media-and-technology-2023/pi_2023-12-11_teens-and-social-media_0-01/>
Realistically and perhaps unfortunately, this trend will trickle-down from groups of people who can afford it. One of the most notable of these diets is Bryan Johnson’s Blueprint. <https://blueprint.bryanjohnson.com/>
This is such an amazing read, thank you for writing!
Wow, great read. I really loved the social products themed theories. I am building a social utility tool myself and I just realized I'm abiding by 2 of them.